U.S. financial institution publicity to Russia-Ukraine war ‘is minimal,’ strategist suggests

RBC Cash Marketplaces Controlling Director Gerard Cassidy joins Yahoo Finance Reside to focus on world fiscal steadiness and U.S. lender exposure to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Movie Transcript

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BRIAN CHEUNG: As we have reviewed, the United States taking action against Russia by banning transactions with the Russian central lender and the country’s prosperity fund. This all coming as the United States and the European Union operate on a listing of financial institutions to lower off from that SWIFT messaging community. Obviously, unplugging an entire country from the world’s monetary network would be very sizeable.

Let us deliver in Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Administration– Funds Markets handling director and head of US Lender fairness tactic. Gerard, it really is terrific to have you on this early morning. You know, Citigroup disclosing $5.4 billion in exposure to the Russian overall economy. How impactful are all these steps going to be on the US financial institution stocks, which are owning a tough early morning by the way this Monday?

GERARD CASSIDY: No, no, they are. They absolutely are getting problems this early morning. There’s obviously a danger-off solution to the markets today. And the financial institutions in these kinds of environments have rough days. In phrases of the genuine exposure to the US banking companies on what is likely on over in Russia, the exposure is nominal. You mentioned Citigroup’s in excess of $5 billion range, which in nominal pounds seems to be significant but as a share of their stability sheet, it can be about 3%, very workable.

So what we’re seeing below, of program, is the risk-off trade with the financial institutions. The 10-calendar year authorities bond yield has fallen, so that’s an additional aspect, the yield curve is flattening. And you will find also a concern will the Federal Reserve be as hawkish on boosting limited-term curiosity rates this 12 months to fight inflation in see of what is heading on over in Russia and Ukraine?

BRIAN CHEUNG: So Gerard, it appears like I indicate, the Fed still continues to be the large story for these banking companies, that helps make sense presented the relevance of the yield curve for their enterprise products. But I necessarily mean, just to type of stay on the subject matter here, about the weekend you had been hearing a ton of folks evaluating the monetary implications of what is actually taking place in Russia to probably a Lehman second. And it is in truth the case that these Russian banks could be at danger of full-on collapsing in this article. So even irrespective of the direct exposure that the US banks have to the Russian financial system, is there a be concerned that perhaps a world-wide economical situation could be cropping up here?

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GERARD CASSIDY: You hardly ever say hardly ever of study course, but it is really not likely. The world wide monetary ailments are considerably, significantly much better right now than they had been pre-Lehman. As you know notably, below in the United States, our American banking process has over two occasions the amount of money and liquidity crafted into the process adhering to the economic disaster due to the Dodd-Frank legislation.

In addition to that, they are tension-tested each individual yr for very draconian situations. Now granted, there wasn’t a war breaking out or a conflict breaking out as part of those draconian situations but they do have counterparty risk eventualities that are very substantial, specially for our global financial institutions. So when you glance around the planet, there is lots of liquidity, there is less leverage, which is significant, which was the main challenge with the Lehman crisis since it distribute so swiftly and there was a leverage trouble. So I don’t see it at this level being everywhere shut to what happened when Lehman collapsed and brought down you know, the world wide monetary system mainly because of the safety measures that have been put in, basic safety steps that have been place in article-money crisis.

BRIAN SOZZI: Gerard, what lender are you most anxious about in terms of upcoming gains this 12 months offered its exposures to several abroad economies?

GERARD CASSIDY: I would say that if there is a problem about revenue, and once more as you guys touched on, the real driver of gains for the banking market, for our world gamers as well as our regional banking institutions, is the outlook for the quick conclusion of the produce curve. If the Federal Reserve raises premiums a few to 4 moments this 12 months, which is our expectation, the profitability of that will be very impressive for the banks.

But when it comes to the present difficulties that we are looking at on the world wide scale with this conflict that has formulated, you will find seriously no substance impact to the American banks’ profitability. The banking institutions that would have exposure, of program, are our world wide banks, together with Citigroup, JP Morgan, then the custody banking companies this sort of as Financial institution of New York and Point out Avenue. But total, I would say that there is some chance no doubt about it, but ideal now it would seem contained. And yet again the technique is very robust based on what took place from the economical disaster and really should weather conditions this storm much, significantly improved than they did in the course of the economic crisis.

BRIAN CHEUNG: I signify, as you stated, Gerard, the exposure to the US banking institutions could possibly not be that substantial but would you hope just the challenge is below to maybe persuade the banks that do have publicity, like for illustration, Citigroup to pare back again on their publicity by possibly slicing these arms of their corporations off. I signify, we now know Citigroup has been making an attempt to slender down when it comes to their worldwide existence but could possibly this accelerate that?

GERARD CASSIDY: No, which is a good problem since when you look at what Citi is doing, they are exiting out of specific intercontinental buyer corporations, but their worldwide company and institutional business is their power. And that is the place the publicity largely is to Russia. So I never see them accelerating or cutting off that enterprise as a final result of this conflict. Now, granted, they have taken precautions and they’re also placing up possibly some excess cash amounts for protection causes but commonly talking, I never expect a authentic knee-jerk reaction. Now, maybe 6 months from now they choose to exit the business enterprise, that’s often a probability but appropriate now I would be astonished if that takes place at this time.

Now, some of the overseas banks undoubtedly have considerably higher exposure to Russia than the Individuals. The Us citizens frequently do not have that a lot exposure. So there is some 2nd by-product risks that if a single of the major overseas banking institutions that may well have a great deal bigger exposure has a lot more direct exposure to some of the American banks, properly, then that would surely be some thing for us to keep track of. But the direct hazards to Russia correct now are incredibly restricted for the American banking institutions.

BRIAN CHEUNG: And then lastly in this article, I suggest, I can’t imagine the Fed is a final dilemma in this circumstance, but in this information cycle it is, but what would you count on to see as the effect of the Fed’s kind of reaction via the March and the meetings afterwards this spring and in the summer to the financial institution stocks? Because it can be not as binary as increased interest premiums damage the financial institutions I suggest, in some cases, increased curiosity prices could give the banks a minimal bit additional space when it comes to their net desire earnings. So how important would let us say, for instance, a much more intense stance from the Fed above the program of 2022 be to the tale for the lender stocks?

GERARD CASSIDY: It would be even far better. You know, the serious threat is that the Fed won’t go at all. So what if the Fed will become pretty dovish due to the fact of this conflict and they will not increase limited-time period curiosity fees or scale it back, that would be extra destructive for the financial institutions than becoming in excess of– or remaining a lot more aggressive.

The banks’ harmony sheets are positioned to benefit mightily from soaring brief-term interest costs. You seem at Wells Fargo, Wells Fargo is displaying that 100 foundation point transfer in fascination prices, equally at the quick finish of the curve and the very long end of the curve, a so-referred to as simultaneous maximize, which is hugely abnormal, but that’s the measure the banks normally use, but when you glance at that, that would direct to a 20% boost in revenues around 12 months for Wells Fargo. And so to us, the banking companies are positioned pretty successfully to reward from rising small-time period fascination prices. It’s one of the several sectors that will do so effectively in a increasing quick-term interest charge atmosphere.

BRIAN CHEUNG: All ideal, nicely, in the next round of lender earnings we will be absolutely sure to have you again on. I believe that that is heading to be in April. But Gerard Cassidy, RBC Money Markets handling director and head of US financial institution equity method. Thanks so much.